SCOTLAND'S No vote will consolidate the position of the Clyde as the main military shipbuilder in the UK, according to a respected defence analyst.
But Professor Malcolm Chalmers, from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank, warned there could be some long-term problems for Scotland's defence industry.
"Having, for the first time, looked at what a 'yes' vote might mean for them, private investors and businesses are now more sensitised than ever before to the risks that a further referendum could pose," he warned. "If some of them were to begin to hedge their bets accordingly, there could be a risk of an extended period of under-investment in Scotland, with serious consequences for its prosperity."
But he said the reverse would be true for the public sector. "Technical risk management considerations, given the significant possibility of a repeat referendum at some stage in the next two decades, might point to there being a case for spending modest amounts on mapping alternative Trident bases in England," he said. "But any such proposal is likely to be firmly vetoed by political leaders, who would fear any such step - if acknowledged in public - could be misinterpreted."
And the issue was clear when it came to the Navy, he said.
"One of the clearest consequences of this vote, therefore, is to consolidate Trident basing at Faslane and Coulport," he added. "Similarly, this vote is likely to consolidate the position of the Clyde as the main provider of military surface shipbuilding within the UK, albeit probably on a smaller scale than has been made possible in recent years by the carrier programme."
Politicians on the No side made much of the Scottish defence jobs that were dependent on the Union during the campaign and would now have to deliver on these commitments, he predicted.
But CND's General Secretary, Kate Hudson said the referendum campaign had increased calls for Trident to be scrapped. "This is no time for David Cameron and the defence establishment to be breathing a sigh of relief about the future of the UK's nuclear weapons," she said. "Trident may not be getting kicked out of a newly independent Scotland: but the British people want it [on] the scrap heap."
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